We should be surprised if the high performances of the Polish tourist demand will not take place

Waiting for the end of next August for checking if the brilliant performance of the Polish organized tourism will be confirmed, it’s worth to pay attention to the last updates of Eurostat about the participation in tourism of population above the 15 years old.

The new data published in the site of the European Statistical Office helps to understand the reason why of the repeated positive performances of the Polish tourist demand and why in the next future similar results must be expected.

The key data are reported in the following graphic where are compared the percentages of population participating in tourism in EU28 and in Poland.

* The data EU28 for 2016 isn’t published yet

The share of Poles having vacations of at least one night during the year is still under the European average but the distance between the two parameters is reducing year by year (from 12 points in 2012 to 7 points in 2015).

According the forecasts of the main economic international institutions, the main variables influencing the trend of the tourist demand (the GDP, the expectations about the GDP and the unemployment rate) will be very positive in Poland in the next 2 – 3 years therefore it is easy to conclude that also the tourist demand of Poles will increase approaching, or probably achieving, the EU28 average

We can estimate the figures of the Polish tourism in case this Country will achieve the European average. The basic data are reported in the following table.

1 Our Estimation

With some simple arithmetic operation, a “light” hypothesis on the percentage of population participating in tourism at European level and on the number of vacations of at least one night taken by Poles per year, it is easy to calculate the number of Poles that have to get vacations for equalizing the EU28 average: 19,400 millions: i.e. one million of Poles more that the tourists registered by Eurostat in 2016. Taking into account that the number of holidays per year per vacationer in Poland fluctuated, between 2,83 and 3,34 the number of trips can be reasonably expected between 54,7 millions and 64,4 millions of travels.

If big troubles don’t change this scenery we should be surprised not by other brilliant performances of the Polish demand but if these performances won’t take place.

Author: Gilberto Zangari

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